When the 2025 Tales Grew Silent and 2026 Stirred Awake

Who am I?

• I design systems, apps, and websites.
• I build systems, apps, websites and manage databases.
• I contribute to open source design as often as possible, usually daily.
• I used to allocate capital to startups ($200k - $1m check size), and we have fully deployed most of that capital.
• I advise teams on how to build tools that people want to use.
• I advise on product development because I have done it well a few times in the last 17 years.
• I mentor others to do what I do for a living, sometimes I speak at universities.
• I run an office space or third space where I advise, work, cook, and clean.
• I read white papers on new technologies and run my own experiments.
• I am trying to make a Holacracy work.
• I speculate on the value and price of assets in whatever market seems interesting.
• I pay wages, issue equity, manage funds, and try to think of the best way to structure companies for the maximal longevity.

I am not a fortune teller, but here are some predictions for 2026:

• The price of stuff will probably cost at least 10% more (but it won't be worth more). US household purchasing power stagnates more in 2026, with nominal wage gains struggling to outpace persistent inflation. I think food prices are going to double for the good healthy stuff. Whatever the Fed is predicting, tensions with foreign nations and wartime behavior will throw off CPI forecasts.
• De-dollarization starts to pick up more. The US Dollar’s share of global reserves at one point was 59%, and then is probably dropping below 50% by the end of 2026, or trending towards it.
• Things will continue to get harder for smaller, less-capitalized venture firms. In 2024, Carta reported that more than 75.25% of all capital raised on its platform went to startups in California (48.79%), New York (10.57%), Massachusetts (8.06%), and Texas (4.72%), and Washington (3.11%). However I project AI deals projected to capture at least 50% of US VC dollars in 2026. By the end of 2026, I expect the venture market to be sharply divided, with maybe approximately 80% of total capital flowing to mega-funds with $100 million or more under management.
• Magnificient Seven dominance remains because there is no reason why it wouldn't. Market concentration will remain extreme, with the “Magnificent Seven” stocks alone constituting ~40% of the S&P 500’s total market capitalization as of year-end 2026.
• The Federal Reserve is probably buying $40 billion in short-term U.S. Treasuries monthly in 2026. This is probably going to have upward price pressure for stocks.
• All U.S. citizen newborns (2025-2028) get an initial $1,000 contribution from the Treasury. Michael Dell is adding $250 to accounts for the first 25 million children. Funds are locked until the child turns 18 and then face tax implications on withdrawl unless maybe put into an IRA. This should have some upward price pressure for stocks.
• Entertainment and subscription businesses are going to take revenue hits. Some new players will do well probably, but I think subscription fatigue is draining Americans.
• Decreased US Immigration. I think we’ll drop almost half to approximately 1.5 million in 2026. For the last 3 years we approximately had 3 million immigrants but the exact numbers are hard to track down for reasons.
• If you have no working experience, it is probably harder to get a job in Software. The U.S. labor market is expected to soften in 2026. I am ignoring the forecasts and just assuming that AI replacing 130 IQ (I know a IQ is a bad measure of intelligence) or under work is goign to cause slower job creation (or no job creation) and tighter hiring conditions. Lets say AI adoption will drive a 50% contraction/reduction in exposed sectors to align with what Dario Amodei said. I am also accounting for companies like Palantir that hire a lot of people but keep their headcount the same.
• In AI, people will be talking about world models and reinforcement learning a lot.
• AI is going to cost a lot more to develop real breakthroughs. The cost to train a single frontier AI model will reach $1 billion per cycle (which takes months) by 2026. Everyone wants to prove these valuations make sense too, so that will be messy.
• No AI singularity, we are just not that smart. But something smarter than most humans will probably emerge this decade.
• Exponential rise of deepfakes, no one is going to measure this well but more are definitely coming!
• Exponential rise of phishing attacks. I am so sad people do this to other people. But the tooling will be better than ever before.
• The global identity verification market will grow by at least $10 billion in 2026. KYC is going to be viewed as the hero to save the day. On top of this, the Trust & Safety Industry is going to expand and also be huge.
• Social Media is going under more heavy fire. The perfect scapegoat for all of our problems. People are going to want to meet in person more because they can’t tell who is an AI or human.
• We are going to keep going for record military spending. Projected U.S. military spending for Fiscal Year 2026 aims to surpass $1 trillion, driven by the Trump administration’s request for a significant increase.
• US and China relations are going to continue to deteriorate because of Taiwan and a low probability of a military invasion (less than 1%). US will use Sanctions instead and they will be fun (this is joke), China will do some other mean things back. I just doubt we are going to de-escalate after Chinese Diplomat Xue Jian said "That filthy neck that barged in on its own—I’ve got no choice to cut it off without a moment’s hesitation. Are you prepared for that” to the Japanese PM Sanae Takaichi.
• Ukraine and Russia war is going to keep raging. Ukraine insists on getting back its 1991 borders, and Russia won’t. Russia will reach over a million total casulities confirmed and Ukraine will also reach a similar number. War is stupid.
• Fire seasons worldwide are getting longer: we will face more fires in the future, even in the territories where they did not happen before. This is one of the reasons why living in the North will get more popular, but I don’t think this is exclusive to 2026.
• Logan Paul’s Pikachu Illustrator card will be worth at least $10 million.

What's your plan for 2026?

• Support your fellow American, I love this country.
• Teach daily; if not, learn so you can teach.
• Expand business partnerships to the east coast.
• Adapt to the changing world, even if it's a changing world order.
• Stay on the offense: share, ship, and communicate daily. Make this non-negotiable.
• Ensure INTDEV outperforms typical engineering and design teams.
• Ensure INTDEV is default alive financially, or get closer.
• Build partnerships with deep mutual financial benefit, our work should make our clients a lot of money.
• Get better every day; pursue compounding growth.
• Empower my team to surpass me and take on my responsibilities as I keep pushing forward.
• Keep an open heart, open eyes, open ears, and open mind.

TLDR, we're going to work more.

As for a retrospective...

For me, 2025 was a blur of a year.

We faced challenges that required us to swim faster than sharks in the water. Despite this, Internet Development Studio Company ("INTDEV") successfully doubled revenue while remaining debt free and independent of outside investment. This lets us support the wages of 7 full time partners in training! Our studio continued to support the ecosystem and junior developers building in our office space in Pike Place, Seattle, Washington. I want to make INTDEV a place where an 18 year old can skip college and come build their dream company with us.

Oddly, it was difficult to communicate why this work was so important, but as market conditions shifted and many organizations faced layoffs and closures, the community observing our journey I think has a much better understanding of our stress.

Now we can all look towards 2026 with continued uncertainty together.

I care deeply about software, software design, and building Internet companies. I have never worked harder to stay current, remain competitive, and continue to deliver top of market craft while the industry changes around us. This is so wild. Throughout 2025, we saw many young startup founders trying to replace what we do with Compound AI Systems (Agents), companies like Lovable raising a 330 Billion Series B to eat at everything we do, new technologies like Cursor and OpenCode challenge long-standing assumptions on how to write code and ship software, and market sentiment question the value of specialized expertise of the primary way we make money.

Our only answer to this is to take upgrades to our workflow that make sense, and swim faster.

As we enter 2026, I feel a lot of pressure. I believe strongly in the value of what we do, but the market ultimately decides what is scarce and meaningful. I am going to wake up every morning with these questions in mind:

• What can we give every day?
• What remains truly difficult to build?
• Where should we take calculated risks?
• Who should we build alongside?
• How do we ensure new builders have a place in this changing industry?

I guess we will try to have fun and make the most of it.

On a much more positive note:

I would like to extend a sincere thank you to Anastasiya Uraleva, Andrew Alimbuyuguen, Caidan Williams, Chenyu Huang, Elijah Seed Arita, Hannah Suh, and Louanne Murphy for trusting me throughout 2025. Their commitment to learning how to build real, durable Internet businesses has been a priviledge to steward! It is a gift of a lifetime to share my experience, resources, and industry knowledge with the next generation of builders who genuinely love the industry I staked my entire life into.

And on gratitude:

97 Andy, A.Codd, Aashna Setia, Adam Fry-Pierce, Ahmed Ghaddah, Alex Murphy, Alexandra, Alexis Hope, Allan Deutsch, Allegra, Ambrosia, Amol Singh, Andre Wiggins, Andres Velarde, Andrew Imanaka, Andrew Larson, Andrew Tam, Andrew Valantine, Andy Kim, Anna Dong, Ariana Deboo, Bao-Chau Do, BCXG, Behzod Sirjani, Ben Roth, Bradley Ziffer, Brent Brookler, Brian Newbold, Brittany Swart, Brock Scott, Bryan Costanich, Cameron Voell, Candice, Carlos Agis, Casey Campbell, Charlie Cheever, Colton Fisher, Courtney Lee, Dan Kelly, Daniel Bergama, Darren Loeliger, David Ardila, Deepak Chennakkadan, Derek Williams, Diana Xie, Elise Majorossy, Emily Hogan, Emily McBride, Emeka Egwuatu, Erik Marks, Esal Shakil, Evan Greco, Frèdo Jacques, Gerome Seeney, Grace Ryan, Grimeshine, Guillaume Ardaud, Hailey Elizabeth, Han Tran, Harley Siezar, Ian Smith, Iris Zhou, Jack Allard, James Bronder, Jay Graber, Jaz Volpert, Jeff Zhang, Jen Raeh, Jeromy Johnson, Jesse Spring, Jess Hui, Joey Law, John Phamous, Johnny Ray, Jon Kiehnau, Jordan Hanaford, Joshua Baker, Justice Fox-Hille, Kaliane Van, Kevin Hanaford, Kevin Lavitt, Kia Farrison, Kunal Tandon, Lawrence Genette, Layla Airola, Leah Fritz Johnson, Leo Nguyen, Leo Shallat, Lindsay Auchinachie, Linden, Luna Maya, Madeline Bledsoe, Marylee Burman, Matt Hoerl, Matthew Fosse, Maya Deen, Michael Kennedy, Mitchell Elero, Nha Voung, Nicholas Bowen, Nirvana Kelly Scott, Ocean Vu, Parker Landon, Paul Frazee, Peter Mueller, Phil Bedford, Rahul Naryani, Reed Harmeyer, Ren, Richard Hua, Rosario Semoletta, Ruslan Makhlouf, Sah Pham, Sai Narayan, Salome, Sanjeev Khanna, Sarah Hays, Sendai Mike, Sharon Lei, Simon Wolfe, SJ Huntington, Smooth, Su Liu, Thomas Burnstead, Tori White, Trinh Nguyen, Tyler Dourte, Vani Agarwal, Victoria Venturella, Will Holland, Wyat Tyalor, Yufa Li, Zac Rogers, Zümrüt Ertem.

I want to thank all of you for everything and supporting INTDEV in 2025, even just once. This year wouldn't have been the same without you! Please don't kill me if I forgot you, I'll make up for it in the new year.

Good luck in 2026.

— Jim